Why Xi-Trump Summit Will Be a Success
Mr. Brunson McKinley for Global Policy Sketchbook
Prediction is hazardous, but chances are good that the summit in Beijing that started today, May 13, will be a success, and not just because the two leaders want it to be. In fact, the two superpowers share many interests in common and have every reason to seek accommodation.
Since President Trump came back last year, he has relaunched the “pivot to Asia”, but it is now clear that his intentions are not just to “contain” China by encircling it with bases and American client states. More importantly he wants to reach agreement with China, America’s only real rival in the 21st-century great game of geopolitics, on the rules of a super-power condominium capable of bringing peace, stability and prosperity to the protagonists of the new, multipolar order as well as those nations who find ways to fit in. The key to the U.S.-China deal will be to make sure that each party has an interest in the success of the other.
The U.S. wants to rebuild its industrial base and capitalize on its strong position in energy, high tech and export agriculture. China can help by opening its domestic market, by promoting joint technological advances (and sharing international customers for them) and by not threatening U.S. primacy in the Western hemisphere.
The payoff for China will be unimpeded access to important sectors of the American economy as well as a free hand for Belt and Road in Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa. America may soon be in a position, once Ukraine is resolved, to influence Russia in favor of allowing China to participate in the exploitation of the Arctic, with its mineral wealth and shorter sea lanes. Xi Jinping of course sees the potential for the opposite happening – U.S. and Russia ganging up against China in the Arctic – and will do what he can to avoid that outcome.
The Chinese sphere of influence has existed in East Asia since the dawn of civilization. Roosevelt recognized this reality in his post-war settlement, which unfortunately did not succeed in taking root. Trump has another chance. In the National Security Strategy, he has already disavowed the idea of Americanizing the world and is content to work with countries as they are. China no longer preaches Marxist ideology to the world and has mastered the ways of capitalism, while holding on to a version of its traditional, highly structured and disciplined society. The U.S. for its part has consistently opposed colonial empires and instead has built its dominant position in the world on trade and commerce, backed of course by the ability to project power. China is following this model with Belt and Road.
Other common interests of the U.S. and China are to block nuclear proliferation, keep sea lanes open, share the governance of extraterrestrial exploration and snuff out regional wars. Both Trump and Xi know that Taiwan is China, but neither is in a hurry to change the status quo that has worked to mutual advantage for decades.
With so much at stake in good relations, why would the two leaders not make a big effort to set a new course?